This is a small excerpt (page 182) from the book ‘Trendsociology v. 2.0’, published by pej gruppen. Buy the book here.
In the 1960s, the mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz identified how air moves around in the atmosphere by measuring changes in temperature, pressure and speed. His overall model or system consisted of twelve different equations that could explain the weather. If only one variable of the twelve equations was changed slightly, it could have a significant impact on the entire system. He also identified the most fundamental mechanisms behind determining chaos and the very sensitive dependence that everything is “equal”. Even minor changes can trigger what is also referred to as “the butterfly effect”, in that small wing fluctuations from a butterfly can have a decisive impact on the weather.
Today, many try to predict the future on the basis of models and systems based on large amounts of data and analysis of the past and the present. Even with lots of equations it is limited how far ahead we can foresee development – and one thing is for sure: we cannot foresee the butterfly effect and the accompanying chaos in an otherwise well-planned process.
Interested in getting your hands on the entire book, (it’s 400 pages), it is possible to buy here.
The book consists of three parts:
- Theory and practical description of what a trend is, how it is spread and what effect it may have.
- Interview with 17 of the world’s top trend researchers
- Practical process description (5 phased process) with concrete methods and tools for working with trends.